GERRYMANDERING 101
                                            JUGGLING DISTRICTS FOR FUN AND PROFIT
                        
   
Gerrymandering has been around since the early years of the United States.  The term was first used in 1812 to describe abuses in the method used by the governor of Massachusetts to draw congressional districts.   In a political cartoon, some of Governor Elbridge Gerry’s districts looked like salamanders. Political opponents quickly coined the term “Gerrymander” and the word has been a part of politics ever since.

By legal necessity, congressional districts must be redrawn to reflect population shifts.  We have 435 members of the House of Representatives.  They are to be assigned based on population.  Each state is guaranteed at least one representative no matter how many people live in that state.  Currently we should have approximately one representative for every 600,000 people. Wyoming has fewer than 600,000 people but still is entitled to 1 representative.  Montana has over 900,000 people but receives only one representative.

Populations shift and a census is done every 10 years.  In the average Baby Boomer’s lifetime, Florida has seen its number of congressmen increase from 8 to 25.  California has grown from 25 to 53.  It works both ways.  For example, Ohio’s delegation has fallen from 23 to 18.

Populations change within a state and the districts must be redrawn to make each district as equal in population as possible.  After all, representatives represent people, not land.  Sometimes the process is misused by the party in power to gain political advantage.  Since many people identify with one party over another, political scientists can identify areas as to their likely vote.  Past elections and polls can pretty well establish the likely vote.

To best explain this, we will create a new state called brilliantly, “New State.”  In another stroke of genius, we will establish that this state is equally split between the Red Party and the Blue Party.  Our new addition is entitled to 8 representatives.



Obviously, it is unlikely that any state would look like this and have such convenient boundaries. We’re exaggerating to make a point about the process.  Nothing is foolproof or definitely predictable.  In our real world, Democrats can be elected from Republican districts and vise-versa.  People can also change party affiliations.  Designing districts to favor one party only increases the chances for that party to win.  It is not a guarantee.


FAIR DISTRICTS FOR NEW STATE
In a fair and non-partisan world, we might expect districts to look like this.  We’ll ignore geographic aberrations and other considerations such as ethnicity, income and cultural factors.  Rightly or wrongly, ethnicity and other factors sometime enter the equation in drawing districts but again, we’re just explaining the process here. 

Legislators in New State have drawn 8 reasonable districts. The districts were created to have geographic convenience and equal populations.  Not considering the personal appeal of candidates or other factors, we would expect Blue and Red to have a good chance to win 4 districts each.  Two districts, C and D, would be in play.

What happens if the Red Party has control of the process?  We could get this:



Here is an exploded view:



As you can see, the Red Party has a solid majority in districts A, C, E, F, G and H. and Blue is likely to win B and D.  Of course, both must still field viable candidates and conduct campaigns.  Members of the Blue Party make up half the population of New State but they will have only 25% of the representatives.  We could have made the example even more extreme.  Our mythical state would have about 4,800,000 people.  We could have created a state and drawn districts for a state that was 60% of one party.  Using the above plan, the 40% minority party would still have the advantage and would likely win 6 of the 8 districts.  Again, this arrangement does not guarantee anything other than the majority party would appear to have a big advantage.  Nothing is certain.

What happens when the Blue Party draws the districts?



Lets look at an exploded view:





Everything changes with Blue in control.  Six districts are now likely to fall to them.  Red has the advantage in only 2 districts. Notice Blue has a 5 to 3 advantage (or better) in Districts A, B, C, D, E and G.  Red should win F and H.  And again, we could have managed the statistics to have Blue with just 40% of the population yet having the opportunity to win 75% of the representation.  Blue is guaranteed nothing.  However, if people vote along party affiliations, Blue would appear to have an unfair advantage.

We see very similar “Gerrymanders” created across the country.  It has become a fact of political life and it has been practiced by Democrats and Republicans. 






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Bill Stockland
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